Intelligence oversight Essay

Introduction MEK OverviewThe Mujahadeen-e-Khalq (MEK) is also k promptlyn as the Peoples Mujahedin of Iran (PMOI). MEK has been periodic solelyy active in straining to overthrow the Iranian government since the early 1960s, and its members attain apply a strain of tactics to achieve their political ends including political campaigning, subversion, and violent attacks targeting civilians. Due in part to their targeting of Ameri notify civilians reinforcement in Iran during the 1970s and their alimentation of ibn Talal Hussein Hussein, the building blocke States State Department has listed MEK as a unconnected Terrorist Organization. In October 2012, the U.S. State Department will go under whether to remove MEK from the FTO list based on MEKs denouncing terrorist tactics and devotion to diplomatic means to gain violence versus violent attacks (Masters 2012). Origins, Ideology and GoalsMEK was born(p) out of a student- assort resistance to Shah Pahlavi in 1965. The founding members of MEK in Tehran regarded the Shah as a U.S. puppet, and they matte that his western sandwichization of Iran went against Irans traditional Islamic values. They be deceitfulnessved in a violent overthrow of the Shah to return Iran to Islamic rule. In 1979, the separate aligned itself with Ayatollah Khomeini in hopes that it could run for office after Shah Pahlavis exile, simply Ayatollah Khomeini succeeded in overthrowing the Shah and he crushed any opposition to his modern government. Since 1979, MEK has been trying to gain the opportunity to run for office in Irans government by shifting alliances and violently attacking the forces, which construct prevented its political ambitions (Goulka 2009). In 2003, the separate earthly concernally denounced violence in an attempt to foster global political support, but its place on the Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) list is blocking it from achieving its desired global support.According to MEK, it has strived for sp b edom and human rights, initiatory against the despotic reign of Shah, and now the theocratic tyranny of the ayatollahs (MEK n.d.). It is an anti-fundamentalist Muslimorganization which believes in a democratic, progressive, and loose interpretation of Islam, according to which elections and public suffrage are the sole indicators of political legitimacy. The PMOI endeavors for a secular, democratic, and non-nuclear republic, and is committed to free elections, gender equality, and abolition of all discrimination against national and religious minorities (MEK n.d.) Non-nuclear is a key cypheration for the United States and other western powers. Iran has increasingly taunted the world with its nuclear program and refuses to deescalate armed forces tensions. In bold statements of aggression, in 2012 alone, Iran has announced two new missiles, an air defense site, and a fleet of ultra-fast gun boats designed to zip fastener into battle against larger western fleets.In a twist of fa te, MEKs future may lie in the hands of the United States. The United States has until October 1, 2012 to decide if it will delist MEK from the FTO. If MEK is delisted it will enjoy very much more(prenominal) than freedom of movement around the world and it will be able to legally receive cash from U.S. based sympathizers. It is not unreasonable to think that the U.S. will delist MEK in an effort to undermine the Iranian Government, much like Saddam Hussein set uped MEK a home in 1986 to undermine Iran during the Iran Iraq contend. Leadership, Funding and CapabilitiesMost of MEKs original drawship was arrested and executed in 1971, but Massoud Rajavi escaped death and remains a leader of MEK. Though he has not been seen publicly since 2003, his wife, Maryam Rajavi, is the public face of the MEK in her role as president-elect of the theme Council of Resistance of Iran (Jones 2012).In the past four decades the group has used several methods to raise funds for its campaign. abo ut methods have made the group infamous and add to the list of reasons that the U.S. and several other nations have categorize it as a Foreign Terrorist Organization. MEK has long been skilled in deception and has used that skill to go its fund raising efforts. For example, its solicitation of funds for Iranian refugees, child welfare, and childrens medical service prove to be fraudulent (FBI n.d.).Until 2003, MEK had a substantial armory due to its front relationshipwith Saddam Hussein. Its entry often included artillery, tanks, aircraft, rocket launchers, rifles, mortars, shells, rockets, land mines, and bullets (FBI n.d.). In 2003, the United States bombed MEK camps and bunkers based on their relationship to Saddam Hussein and the idea that they posed a signifi crappert scourge with their armaments. MEK members no longer have light-headed access to such large stockpiles of arms. MEK is now facing deportation from its Iraqi camp Ashraf and remains disarmed. direct Bases, S upport Bases, StrengthsMEK has moved its headquarters over the years as a necessary part of survival. before founded in Tehran, it moved to Paris after the 1979 Iranian Revolution. The group had allied with the Ayatollah Khomeini, but Khomeini forced the group out in fear of opposition. In 1986 Saddam Hussein invited the group to relocate to camp Ashraf. Iraq was at war with Iran, and relocating the group from Paris to Iraq was Husseins method of undermining Iran. At the start of the U.S. led war in Iraq under Operation Iraqi Freedom, the group was classified as enemy combatants and subsequently confine to Camp Ashraf, where approximately 3,000 MEK now live (Carter 2011). The new government of Iraq has declared that all members of MEK must fall in the country, and the U.N. is currently working to resettle the group elsewhere. For the moment MEK enjoys limited support from sympathizers around the world, but it is dispossessed which is both a strength and a weakness.The U.N., citi ng international law, will not allow the Iraqi government to force members to leave Iraq or force repatriation until members have a suitable place to live. This predicament brings MEK any(prenominal) publicity and sympathy for their cause, but Iraqs determination to expel MEK could not have occurred at a worse time. With June 2013 elections nearing, increasing tension with western military powers, and an imminent Israeli preemptive strike against Iranian nuclear targets, MEK lead must act swiftly to ensure its place in the 2013 elections. PART II RED TEAM ANALYSISWhy Use Red Team depth psychology?Given the compound dynamics of the Iranian situation, analysts should usethe Red Team Analysis technique in order to vanquish predict what course(s) of natural process MEK leadership will take to assume control of the government. By empathizing with the MEK leadership analysts can gain better insight to most likely courses of action. The end state of this analytic technique is to for k out Congress and the President with an accurate forecast of MEKs courses of action so that the United States may harbor the appropriate short and long term foreign policy in the Middle East.Since MEK desires a peaceful, bounteous Iran that can only be legitimized via free elections and public suffrage, it cannot take control of the nation by force. Therefore, MEKs options are limited and it must patiently await the 2013 elections regardless of the growing concern of military action and economic sanctions. As President Ahmadinejad continues to escalate military tension with western nations and Israel, through missile, nuclear, and naval programs (Torbati 2012). MEK leadership must carefully calculate how to win popular Iranian support, world support, and financial backing all without ever appearing to be influenced by western powers as previous Iranian leaders had. reiterate Current MEK GoalsRed Team Analysis must begin with placing oneself in the shoes of MEK leadership. The ke y to find out any viable course of action is to outline clear goals or milestones. With clear goals, analysts can categorize what actions and strategies are available and likely. According to MEKs official website, its current goals, rather, solution to the western-Iranian strife is to rid the neck of the woods and the world of the nightmare of the Islamic fundamentalists armed with nuclear weapons by democratic interpolate in Iran by the lot and the Resistance (Rajavi 2010). This stated goal remains largely unchanged from its 1970s goal. The main difference now is that MEK is more tolerant of western aid, albeit, so long as they do not become besides influenced by it. Key Assumptions CheckParamount to the analytic process is a key assumptions check. This step allows analysts to distinctly document the start point of their cognitive map as well as allowing time to consider information that challenges cognitivebiases. The key assumptions must be listed in such a way that analys ts feeling like MEK leaders would if trying to decide how to realize their stated goal of taking control of the Iranian government. Below is a list of key assumptions in this Red Team Analysis. Previous Failures. All previous attempts to control government have give offed beginning with the overthrow of the Shah in 1979. This assumption is critical because the MEK believed the Ayatollah Khomeini was their ally. They were betrayed. They banded unitedly only to be exiled indoors two years and many members were arrested and executed while Khomeini consolidated power.The follow out likely taught MEK to distrust any potential allies within the current regime. History of Violence. During the 1960s the Shah used force and violence against government opposition. Uprisings in the 1970s culminated in the exile of the Shah, but into the 1980s MEK fought the new Iranian government. During the Iraq-Iran war that began in the early 1980s, MEK settled just north of Baghdad and fought a cosse t border war with the clerical regime for twenty more years. Only at the turn of the snow did MEK publicly denounce violence and terrorist tactics. The significance is that, while MEK members are accepting of risk and violence, they have grow and realize that they do not operate in a vacuum. MEK understands the need for global acceptance. HUMINT Value. MEK can offer HUMINT to the U.S. No other organization with detailed knowledge of Iran and its military and political system is willing to domiciliate such information to western powers.The U.S. has had peakly limited success installing or fireing agents in Iran because of uttermost(a) scrutiny that outsiders face, and CIA informants are usually discovered due to poor tradecraft (Hosenball 2011). MEK however, has family, friends, sympathizers and safe houses inside Iran. As well, since the U.S. impact of Iraq in 2003 MEK has authoritative training, equipment and funds to carry out attacks inside Iran and to collaborate with U. S. and Israeli light go (Joshi 2012). MEKs HUMINT value is possibly the most important aspect for western powers. MEK leadership understands the power they support and must leverage it wisely. Knowledge of U.S. Tactics Techniques and Procedures. MEK leaders are aware of U.S. TTPs at the small unit tactics level up through executive branch policymaking. They will play on the American and Israeli fears of a nuclear armed Iran while leveraging their HUMINT and political value to affect their delisting from the FTO. oncedelisted they will be able to receive more funding from international sources, thus requiring less U.S. support and will become less responsive to U.S. demands. Western Support Critical For Financing, Opposite of Ideology existence listed on the U.S. Foreign Terrorist Organization list impedes MEKs financing efforts. In order to gain power they must be delisted decade long endeavor thus far. Its members have cooperated with Israeli and U.S. intelligence services sin ce 2003 in an effort to gain support and take over the political regime in Iran, but its original ideology was very much opposed to any western influence. MEK must exercise extreme caution to ensure that the group does not appear to be another puppet regime of the U.S and particularly not in collaboration with Israel. If panicened with defeat, the current regime will likely try to absorb MEK as a puppet regime, and if the U.S. loses influence it may also try to publicize MEKs cooperation in an effort to decrease its credibility among Iranians. Enormity of the Situation. MEK is currently stateless. Though the U.N. has petitioned several governments to accept MEK members, most have declined to accept them. With nowhere to go MEK is desperate to gain power in Iran because it belongs to no other state. If they fail the Iranian regime will likely execute them, despite President Ahmadinejads amnesty offer. info Collection OptionsOf the many hookup options the United States has at its disposal, a handful stand out as being the most practical. HUMINT may be the best collection option because it offers an inside look at MEK and the status of the Iranian nuclear and defense programs as well as the mentality and plans of regime leaders. For example, an cloak-and-dagger agent, code named Wally, joined the Revolutionary Guard in the 1980s and gave the CIA plans, ideology, weaponry etc, and he was able to recruit several more members of the Revolutionary Guard to turn informer for the CIA (Zucchino 2012).OSINT is another extremely useful collection option, which can offer detailed atmospherics and help depict the support, or lack thereof, of the general public to the current and possible successor regimes. OSINT can also offer information on Irans antiaircraft and offensive capabilities as depictedin the recent revelation that Iran has cloned a fleet of ultra-fast gun boats. earlier produced in England, the Bradstone Challenger (Bladerunner) is a speedboat with a r evolutionary hull design that affords it great stability at high speeds. Iran illicitly purchased a Bladerunner in 2009, reverse engineered the design, and manufactured its own fleet which the Navy modified to launch torpedoes and missiles at full speed. The Bladerunner fleet, combined with an array of heavily armed small craft, including unmanned fast Ya Mahdi vessels, Bavar 2 flying boats, Seraj-1 high-speed patrol boats and Zolfaghar fast attack craft (Stock 2012) poses a significant threat to the Strait of Hormuz and western naval forces with much larger and slower vessels.SIGINT and MASINT will likely have to wait until military confrontation begins in order to be relevant. MEKs equipment inventory is very limited, so SIGINT and MASINT should not be a top priority. GEOINT is relevant in that it depicts the correlation of key terrain to strategical targets and political issues. For example, GEOINT can depict which routes MEK would likely take in order to transit to Tehran or flee Iraq in other ways. It also helps answer contingency operation questions such as, what if MEK takes control of the military and attempts to hold the Strait of Hormuz ransom? In a more tactical situation GEOINT can provide detailed dimensions of hideouts and buildings for the U.S. to plan an attack should the need arise. Use of the Intelligence CommunityThe CIA is the best is the best theatrical to use to handle collection on MEK. The agency has more than half a century of reckon in working with sources and is best trained in managing counterintelligence and misinformation techniques. Already, the CIA has worked with MEK members since 2002 when MEK publicized Irans underground Uranium enrichment program. prep MEK members in tradecraft techniques and supporting their cross-border subversion tactics allows the CIA to wage a proxy war with Iran while alter its relationship and gaining more human intelligence on both MEK and Iran. No other agency within the United States has the resources to foster this type of relationship with MEK. Most Effective Intelligence Analysis StrategiesThe effective intelligence strategy to use for evaluating MEK and forecasting its actions is to begin with Analysis of Competing Hypotheses and follow those results with the Devils Advocacy method. Analysis of Competing Hypotheses. ACH is ideal for evaluating MEK because there are diverse dynamics involved in forecasting MEK actions. Considering that the U.S. must decide to keep or delist MEK from the FTO on October 1, 2012, ACH would provide decision makers with a documented line of logical thinking to support an Intelligence Forecast. Devils Advocacy. The prevailing consensus in Washington is that MEK has morphed from a militant group to a political group in the past decade and will be a more western friendly regime if it comes to power. But what if MEK is playing the west to gain power now, while on the QT planning to spread its 1979 revolutionary ideology across the Middle Ea st and North Africa in an attempt to reestablish Persian dominance? It seems that the west is focused first on countering a nuclear threat and second on countering any blocking of the Hormuz Strait. No additional talking points regarding Iran or MEK have received much publicity since 1979. ConclusionMEK is a wild card in the Iran standoff. The United States and other western powers, as well as Israel, must carefully consider how to proceed with MEK relationships. The organization has shown a level of changing allies in order to advance its goals, making it predictable in the sense that they can be counted on to do whatever it takes to survive and take control of the Iranian government. To brush MEK deflection may mean transaction with a nuclear armed Iran later, and to support MEK may mean dealing with a provoked Iran now. No matter the decision, each carries its own implications for U.S. foreign policy. Washington must finally decide between the lesser of two evils.BibliographyC arter, Chelsea. U.N., Iraq agree to temporary relocation of Iranian exiles. CNN, December 26, 2011. http//articles.cnn.com/2011-12-26/middleeast/world_meast_iraq-camp-ashraf-relocation_1_camp-ashraf-ashraf-residents-mek/2?_s=PMMIDDLEEAST (accessed July 28, 2012).FBI. Seven Plead Guilty to Providing Material Support to Designated Foreign Terrorist Organization. FBI. http//www.fbi.gov/losangeles/press-releases/2009/la042809a.htm (accessed July 29, 2012).Goulka, Jeremiah, et al. The Mujahedin-e Khalq in Iraq A insurance policy Conundrum. RAND Corporation Santa Monica, 2009.Hosenball, Mark. Hezbollah, Iran uncover CIA informants. Reuters. http//www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/21/us-cia-hezbollah-idUSTRE7AK2MQ20111121 (accessed August 23, 2012).Jones, Owen Bennet. An Iranian mystery Just who are the MEK?BBC News. http//www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-17615065 (accessed July 30, 2012).Joshi, Shashank. Iran and the Mujahedin e Khalq (MEK). Harvard University Department of Government. http//sh ashankjoshi.wordpress.com/2012/05/30/iran-and-the-mujahedin-e-khalq-mek/ (accessed August 24, 2012).Masters, Jonathan. Mujahadeen-e-Khalq (MEK) (aka Peoples Mujahedin of Iran or PMOI). Council on Foreign Relations, July 18, 2012. http//www.cfr.org/iran/mujahadeen-e-khalq-mek-aka-peoples-mujahedin-iran-pmoi/p9158 (accessed July 24, 2012).MEK. Camp Ashraf About Us. MEK. http//www.campashraf.org/about/camp-ashraf/ (accessed July 30, 2012).Rajavi, Maryam. Comprehensive sanctions is the essential first step, regime change is the final solution. Peoples Mojahedin Organization of Iran. http//www.mojahedin.org/pagesen/detailsNews.aspx?newsid=9551 (accessed August 22, 2012).